ESPN's Teams of the Last Decade
ESPN has, in an effort to bide time during the slow calm before the start of the college football season, decided to rank the top programs of the last decade, taking into account everything from winning percentage to fan support.
The way I see it, the way it should be, winning and talent should outweigh the other factors, leaving these two powerhouse fixtures at the top:
- USC
- Miami
USC is obvious with their championships and heismans the last 5 years, but Miami is tops or very near in winning percentage, final rankings, bowl wins, championship games, etc. (not only the last decade, but the last 25 years). Miami is also tops in first round draft picks (has had at least one first rounder the last 12 years or so), has put the most players in the NFL, has played in the some of the most watched games ever on TV. Not to mention the 2001 Miami Hurricanes - smack dab in the middle of this past decade - were the greatest college football team ever assembled. Some might argue this point and say the greatest ever was '95 Nebraska, '55 Oklahoma, or '04 USC. But no one in their right mind, even a rival with a grudge, can honestly say that the '01 'Canes weren't one of the all-time greats.
FSU, Oklahoma, and Florida should also round out the Top 5, but USC and Miami are BY FAR the tops.
So how did Miami fare, according to that Bastion of Sports Fair-and-Balanced-ness, ESPN?#8.
Absolutely ridiculous.
The Top 25 ballots of each "expert" is listed by name, and almost all have Miami rightfully in the Top 10. As a matter of fact, more than half the experts have Miami in the Top 5. There are two, however, who are just glaringly wrong in not including Miami in the Top 10. Bill Curry, for one, has Miami at #18. Below the likes of Iowa, TCU, Boston College, Kansas State, and Penn State who mostly haven't even come close to sniffing the Top Five at all in the last decade. Curry's perhaps is still holding a grudge from when Miami destroyed his 'Bama team in the '92 Sugar Bowl. Bob Davie, the other knuckleheaded "expert," didn't even rank the 'Canes in The Top 25. Top. Twenty. Five. Though I suppose this should be expected from the guy who didn't even place the national championship team in '91 (Miami, arguably one of the Top 15 best college teams to ever take the field) in the Top 5 the very year they won it all. Without his asinine and seemingly prejudiced ranking (he is a Domer, after all), The U jumps from 8th to 5th. Just from that one guy. I did the math.
But some people will say that I'm simply speaking out of bias, so I've taken a page out of the Saurian Sagacity handbook and have exhaustively analyzed the hard data of the teams chosen by ESPN as the Top 10. You will find that in almost every single category, Miami is in the Top 5. (And also note that USC is consistently toward the bottom. Remember, USC was not good at all - completely unranked - for exactly the first half of the decade. So one or two off years are certainly forgivable when fairly dominating the other years. For everyone who says "Miami has Fallen," consider this: Miami was ranked #3 as recently as November 19, 2005, and was still in the top 15 about nine months ago. Florida, by comparison, was completely unranked ending the 'o4 season. And since Miami has a greater history of winning and championship, it's unreasonable to assume that last season for the Hurricanes was anything but a fluke. Hopefully, this will become more apparent as you read on.)
Winning %, Record
Perhaps the most important stat to take into account has Miami in the Top 5.
1. Texas (77.7%, 98-28)
2. Ohio State (77.6%, 97-28)
3. Michigan (77.4%, 96-28)
4. Miami (76.4%, 94-29)
5. FSU (75.5%, 96-31)
6. Florida (74.6%, 94-32)
Tennessee ( 74.6%, 94-32)
8. Oklahoma (72.5%, 87-33)
9. USC (72.0%, 90-35)
10. LSU (69.3%, 86-38)
Bowl Record (Wins, Total Appearances)
Another extremely important stat considering Bowl Appearances are not necessarily automatic, and the Bowl Games should be one of the toughest games of the year. Here, in the post season ("when it counts"), Miami is #1.
1. Miami (7-2)
2. Texas (6-4)
3. LSU (6-2)
4. Florida State (5-5)
Florida (5-5)
Michigan (5-5)
7. Ohio State (5-4)
8. Oklahoma (4-4)
9. USC (4-3)
10. Tennessee (3-6)
All teams have won a national championship within last decade. USC, Miami, Ohio State, Florida State have all played for more than one title. Only USC has at least partial claim to two.
Seasons with 9 wins or more
Having 9 or more wins in a season shows relative dominance. Maintaining 9 or more wins per season every season is a sign consistent strength. Miami is #2 here with 8 out of 10 years having 9 or more wins. Conincidentally, the sub 9-win seasons were the first and last years of the decade.1. Texas - 9
2. Miami - 8
Michigan - 8
4. FSU - 7
Florida - 7
LSU - 7
Tennessee - 7
8. Oklahoma - 6
Ohio State - 6
10. USC - 5
Top 5 finishes
A very telling stat since - despite the rankings often being a flawed system - this directly relates to the rest of college football. Miami is in a tie for #3 having finished in the Top 5 of the final AP poll 4 of the last 10 years.
1. USC - 5
2. Ohio State - 5
3. Miami - 4
Oklahoma - 4
Florida - 4
FSU - 4
7. Texas - 3
8. LSU - 2
Tennessee - 2
Michigan - 2
Top 25 finishes
It's rare for a team to be great, but every year there are 25 very good teams. Here, Miami is #4 having finished in the Top 25 of the AP poll in 8 out of the last 10 years (again the only exceptions being the first and last years of the decade).
1. Texas - 9
Michigan - 9
FSU - 9
4. Miami - 8
UF - 8
6. Oklahoma - 7
Ohio State - 7
LSU - 7
9. USC - 5
Tennessee - 5
Record against the rest of the Top 10
This tells how these ten teams have fared against each other, and thus provides a more direct comparison. Florida has the most wins against teams in the Top 10, but also has - by far - the most losses. Miami has the best record against teams in the Top 10. USC has played - by far - the least number of games against teams in the Top 10, hinting at how consistently their schedule was relatively easy (the opposite of Florida). I wonder how many championships any of the rest of the Top 10 would have with USC's sked?
1. Miami (60%, 12-8)
2. Texas (60%, 9-6)
3. LSU (53%, 9-8)
4. Florida (50%, 18-18)
5. Florida State (50%, 13-13)
6. Ohio State (50%, 8-8)
7. USC (50%, 3-3)
8. Oklahoma (46%, 6-7)
9. Tennessee (42%, 8-11)
10. Michigan (33%, 5-10)
First round draft picks
A truer test of the quality of talent than recruitment rankings since this basically looks at the performances while on the college team and determines how it will translate to the highest level (NFL). Miami is by far #1. I mean, by a redonkulous amount: 38% better than #2 and 72% better than #9. Plus, Miami holds the record with a first round draft pick at 12 years (and counting).
1. Miami (29)
2. FSU (18)
3. Ohio State (16)
4. Florida (13)
Texas (13)
6. Tennessee (12)
7. USC (10)
LSU (10)
9. Oklahoma (8)
Michigan (8)
Recruiting Class Ranking
Recruiting Class rankings are quite meaningless and hardly an exact science, but since ESPN says they take it into account, let's do that as well. Here are the average rankings between Scout and Rivals since 2001. Records before 2001 do not exist, which is a shame since Miami's greatest recruiting in history thus far took place in the Butch Davis era of the late 90's to 2000 (Edgerrin James, Ed Reed, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Sean Taylor, Jeremy Shockey, Andre Johnson, Kellen Winslow, Jonathan Vilma, Dan Morgan, Vince Wilfork, Bryant McKinnie, Phillip Buchanon, Mike Rumph, Bubba Franks, etc.).
But despite the Miami handicap, The U still is #6 in recruiting. Without question, if the first years were on record, Miami would undoubtedly be higher.
1. USC (3.67)
2. Florida (7.75)
3. Oklahoma (8.25)
4. Texas (8.33)
5. LSU (8.42)
6. Miami (9.08)
7. Tennessee (9.17)
8. Michigan (10.17)
9. FSU (10.33)
10. Ohio State (14.08)
Student Body
There's no denying that the Miami fanbase - in any sport - can be a bit finicky at times. But it's only fair to take into account the student body (and thus area alumni) when talking about fan attendance of Hurricane games. Miami is a small school - less than a third the size of Ohio State, Texas or Florida (and it was even smaller within the last decade). Add to that the fact that Miami is a commuter school - unlike pretty much all the rest of the top 10 - and you've got a fair understanding of some serious discrepancies.
Ohio State - 51,818
Texas - 49,696
Florida - 49,693
FSU - 40,474
Michigan - 40,025
LSU - 33,587
USC - 33,389
Oklahoma - 29,721
Tennessee - 26,400
Miami - 15,241
Facilities, Reputation, and Other Issues
So the "experts" also took into account facilities - one (of a few) area where Miami has a bad rap. Certainly Miami is no Oregaon where they have to come up with reasons for players to go there, but the training and workout facilities are still top-notch (click here for pictures). Hurricanes from around the NFL come down and train at Miami every year, something not found anywhere else ("tradition" is another factor to be considered"). And though the condition of the Orange Bowl certainly drops the average for the condition of the facilities, the OB is still one of the 25 toughest places to play in college football, home of the greatest home winning streak in NCAA history, and held numerous bowl games, championships, and super bowls.
Miami also has the mostly unfounded Thug U reputation despite the fact that there has only been one NCAA infraction in the last 20 years, as well as almost no legal issues in the last 25 years. The players have had a few embarrassing episodes in the last couple of years, but there are plenty of programs that have arguably done worse (USC, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M, etc.).
Also, not only is Miami tougher to get into academically (Miami has minimum requirements, versus the sliding scale used in the rest of the NCAA), but Miami has one of the highest graduation rates of all of college football.
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Hopefully I made my case, as tremendous an exercise in futility this rebuttal may have been. If you're not convinced that Miami is at least in the Top 5, then you should hurry up and get back on the crack pipe before your finger burns start to heal.
And if this were a list for teams of the last quarter century, there really is no competition. Miami is #1 in almost all categories including national championships (5).




2 comments:
it's all currpted
the flaw in your formula if I am understanding it right is that you are not weighting the in conference competition. With FL, who I hate having 18 wins and losses against top 10 competition, I have to ask how many of the losses and wins were against teams in the conference they play in. That makes for a MUCH tougher strength of schedule and greatly increases the liklihood of losing to a top 10 team. If you have 2 or 3 in your own conference you can't run and hide. You gotta play them. That is why your SEC teams have to be on top of that list. Ask Ohio State how the 2nd best team from the SEC was last year in the NC game.....It should have been FL - LSU hands down the 2 best teams in football last year. In My Opinion...... What do you think about that? Please reply to bobmugge@adelphia.net
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